Cause And Effect Of Iraq War Essay

Cause And Effect Of Iraq War Essay-58
The deadly violence is omnipresent, but without a visible front or an apparent strategy---and for those reasons, among others, it is poorly understood.It is for this reason that the mortality study conducted by Burnhamwas commissioned by the MIT Center for International Studies.This matches the widespread observation of assassinations, single shots to the head either in groups or individually.

The deadly violence is omnipresent, but without a visible front or an apparent strategy---and for those reasons, among others, it is poorly understood.It is for this reason that the mortality study conducted by Burnhamwas commissioned by the MIT Center for International Studies.This matches the widespread observation of assassinations, single shots to the head either in groups or individually.

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The "Awakening councils" of the last few months are purchased, and may be motivated not only by money but by a desire to regain control of local areas from foreign and to create a new bulwark, with the U. With whom these now well-armed Sunni fighters will cast their lot in future years is anyone's guess.

While no one is insisting that the large numbers of fatalities reported in the Burnham et al study are indisputable---their mid-range estimate as of July 2006 was 655,000 dead due to the war, 600,000 by violence---the study provides an order of magnitude estimate, the only scientific calculation of the war dead at the time (see analyses of other surveys published since, on this site), and invaluable demographic data.

(Hypothetically, for example, if just three people were killed daily in the major urban centers of Iraq, of which there are more than 80, something like 300,000 deaths would accrue over the 40 months of the study.) The study showed that the deaths were mainly among young men, which also tracks with anecdotal evidence.

More than two-thirds of fatalities take place outside Baghdad, which is indirectly confirmed by figures from Multinational Force reports.

The recent spate of books and ongoing news coverage only partially address these matters of violence.

These accounts are necessarily incomplete, given how dangerous it became to report from Iraq soon after Saddam Hussein was deposed. Academic studies, including interviews with jailed insurgents, suggest that violent actors are creating an enormous, self-generating feedback loop in which violence begets violence.Understanding the scale, the sources of violence, the demographical profiles of the victims, and the geographic dispersion of killing---all recorded in the household survey of the Iraq mortality study---provides an indispensable tool in coming to terms with the violence in Iraq.For all the attention given to the insurgent attacks and suicide killers, scholars and policy professionals---including those in the U. Government---have not grasped the roots of violence or its consequences.The fighters are volunteers, new to insurgency or jihad.Their religious convictions or knowledge are thin, leading researchers to believe that insurgents are volunteering more for secular reasons---nationalism, defense, moral outrage---than as part of a holy war. Sunni imams of the local mosques are not connected to each other as are the Shia clerics, who follow Ayatollah Sistani's instructions; the Sunni sermons grow from local circumstances, and a process of bidding up the resistance is at work as a result.These emotions stir moral outrage, as psychologists studying this have found, which can be expressed in violence.Virtually all the accounts of the American invasion and occupation describe harsh practices that have stirred a ferocious response.However, a large proportion of deaths are attributed to coalition forces, between 14 and 21 percent over time directly attributed, a belief that is reflected, as explained in footnote 3, in other surveys of Iraqis.In the mortality survey, it is not clear how many deaths can fairly be attributed to coalition forces, since respondents' knowledge of the source of death is far less reliable than the fact of death.That the violence is horrific and worsening is broadly acknowledged, and it is increasingly evident that mortality is very high. There are a few commonly cited reasons for the Sunni Arab insurgency. that draw new family members into the insurgency as others are killed, captured, or roughed up; nationalism, both Iraqi and pan-Arab; and the recent flowering of religious fundamentalism in the Islamic world.In the succinct words of Barry Posen, Professor of Political Science at MIT, there are "four sources of energy": the anger of a group that once stood at the pinnacle of power and privilege in Iraq and now has been thrust to the bottom; tight kinship ties among this group . The reason most frequently cited to explain Sunni Arab violence is the loss of the status they enjoyed under Saddam Hussein, as Posen notes, but this seems an unlikely engine to generate such widespread disruption for more than five years.


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